Todd M. Siebert: Trump vs. Carson: GOP superstars go head to head

GOP front-runners Dr. Ben Carson (left) and Donald Trump (right)

Up until now, Trump has been considered the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination.

But one of the world’s most competitive businessmen now has some serious competition in the Republican race for the White House – Dr. Ben Carson.

And there could be fireworks Wednesday at 8 p.m. EST when the two heavyweights go head to head in the third Republican presidential debate hosted by CNBC at the Coors Events Center in Boulder, Colorado.

The main debate, titled “Your Money, Your Vote,” will be moderated by CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla, co-anchor of “Squawk on the Street” and “Squawk Alley”; Becky Quick, co-anchor of “Squawk Box”; and Chief Washington Correspondent John Harwood.

The following 10 candidates will appear at the main event: businessman Donald Trump, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

CNBC will also host an undercard debate at 6 p.m. EST featuring the following GOP candidates who meet a minimum threshold of 1 percent in the polls: former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former New York Gov. George Pataki and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.

The events will be broadcast live to cable subscribers.

CNBC-debate

Carson and Trump: Too close to call

According to CNBC, Republican contenders will debate issues such as job growth, taxes, technology, retirement and health of the U.S. economy.

Notably, both leading GOP candidates are political outsiders and masters of their trades.

Trump, a billionaire real-estate developer and reality TV star, studied economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Carson, an outspoken critic of Obamacare and the first surgeon to successfully separate twins who were joined at the head, spent nearly three decades as director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins.

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Carson now has a narrow lead over Trump, according to a New York Times/CBS News survey released Tuesday. He also has the highest favorability rating of any of the Republican candidates, according to Gallup.

In the NYT/CBS poll, 26 percent of Republican primary voters preferred Carson, while 22 percent favored Trump. Since early October, Carson has gained five points, and Trump lost five.

“I don’t get it,” Trump told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Tuesday. “I’m going there (to Iowa) actually today, and I have tremendous crowds and tremendous love in the room and, you know, we seem to have hit a chord. But some of these polls coming out, I don’t quite get it.

CBS News/New York Times poll results, Oct. 21-25, 2015

The two contenders are well ahead of the rest of the GOP pack. Sen. Marco Rubio garnered 8 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina each received the support of 7 percent of respondents. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio each came in at 4 percent.

However, not all polls have Carson on top.

A One America News Network poll shows Trump 14 points ahead of Carson, with 35.6 percent support. Four polls conducted in mid-October by CNN/ORC International, Monmouth, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and ABC/Washington Post all had Trump leading Carson by at least 10 points.

For the other 12 GOP contenders, the question is whether any of them can break out of the pack by generating a memorable moment that will leave a lasting and positive impression with voters, despite the long shadow cast by Trump and Carson.

Economy and jobs

The election issue most important to voters – by far, according to numerous surveys spanning the past year – is the economy and jobs.

The sluggish, some say non-existent, recovery is an area where all the candidates may attack President Obama.

Millions of Americans still can’t find full-time jobs, and their paychecks are barely keeping up with inflation. And in October, Americans became even more apprehensive about the job market.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 97.6 this month, down from 102.6 in September, the Associated Press reported.

And according to a Wall Street Journal report this week, “Quarterly profits and revenue at big American companies are poised to decline for the first time since the recession, as some industrial firms warn of a pullback in spending.”

The downturn in production, sales and employment is hitting railroads, manufacturers and energy producers.

“The industrial environment’s in a recession. I don’t care what anybody says,” Daniel Florness, chief financial officer of Fastenal Co., told investors and analysts in October, according to the Wall Street Journal. Florness said one-third of his top customers for factory and construction supplies have slashed their spending by more than 10 percent, and one-fifth of them have cut spending by 25 percent.

According to the report, the aerospace and technology sectors are also experiencing weak growth.

Meanwhile, companies such as Twitter Inc., Biogen Inc., Wal-mart Stores Inc. and Monsanto Co. have recently announced job cuts.

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