Todd M. Siebert: Food prices could jump 400 percent in global shortage

Monday 27 June 2016

Food prices could jump 400 percent in global shortage

In the United States, it seems like food is just about everywhere you look. So, outside prepper circles, the idea of a shortage drastic enough to create massive civil upheaval seems unimaginable to most people. But government emergency contractors are currently planning for the reality of a global food shortage and extreme price increases in the near future.

CNA Corporation, a Federal Emergency Management Agency contractor, began considering the possibility of a global food shortage that could last more than a decade with a series of data simulations late last year. The company produced a series of studies taking a look at the “food chain reaction” that could arise from prolonged crop failures and a variety of natural and manmade disasters that could cripple global agribusiness production.

For the studies, 65 officials from around the world, including experts from the State Department, the World Bank, and agribusiness giant Cargill, ran food-shortage simulations and attempted to determine how governments could best respond to shortages to minimize unrest.

The results are frightening.

According to the simulation, a global food shortage that lasted from 2020 until 2030 could drive food prices up by nearly 400 percent. With very little world governments could do to control the price increases, developed countries would begin looking much like their third-world counterparts before too long.

“Disruptions affected developed and developing countries alike, creating political and economic instability, and contributing to social unrest in certain areas,” the project’s technical report states.

The global price of food can fluctuate drastically based not only on unexpected weather conditions but also because of outside economic factors such as rising oil prices and currency inflation caused by currency manipulation.

In the United States, falling purchasing power for the dollar has been gradually increasing food prices for the past several decades. But in recent years, the increases have become far more noticeable as the Federal Reserve’s monetary manipulation has become increasingly desperate.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that beef prices jumped a whopping 9.2 percent in 2014. Eggs climbed 8.4 percent. And though prices have begun to stabilize thanks to lower than usual oil prices, even minor disruptions caused by weather or manmade problems could bring back huge increases.

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