So you think the race for the Republican nomination for president is already too crowded and confusing — especially since the actual election is still a year and a half away? Well, be patient, my friends. It’s going to be a while before this mad scramble is over.
With all the names under discussion, you may be surprised to hear that right now there are only six announced candidates. They include three senators (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz), one former governor (Mike Huckabee), and two people who have never held political office (Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina).
The two potential candidates who currently sit at the top of the polls have yet to make an official announcement that they’re running. They are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and current Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Everyone knows they are in the race. In fact, they are spending virtually all of their time at fundraisers or meet-and-greets in the early primary states.
There are at least three other potential candidates who are expected to make a formal announcement in the next few days: former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and current South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Also assumed to be running, but not officially declared, are New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. And there are a bunch of other names being bandied about as potential candidates, including businessman and entertainer Donald Trump.
While the Democrats are having trouble coming up with even one viable alternative to Hillary Clinton, the Republicans have a plethora of choices. So how will they narrow the field?
The obvious answer is via televised debates. The Republican National Committee has said it will sanction 12 official forums for this election cycle, cutting in half the two dozen debates that were staged by Republicans in 2012. But even that number is pretty cumbersome.
So who will make it on stage? And who will be left to complain from the sidelines that the selection process was unfair? The RNC decided to leave the details of who gets an invite up to the host of each debate. And here’s where it gets interesting.
Fox News, which is sponsoring the first scheduled Republican debate in Cleveland on Aug. 6, says it will include declared candidates who finish in the top 10 in a combination of national polls. Fox hasn’t specified which polls it will use, so there’s bound to be some quibbling by the folks who get left out.
The next Republican debate won’t be until Sept. 16 in Simi Valley, California. This one will be hosted by CNN, which says it will include candidates who are in the top 10 in 13 national polls.
In case you’re interested, as of right now Real Clear Politics says the top five to make the debates would be Bush, Walker, Rubio, Paul and Huckabee. Completing the field would be Cruz, Carson, Christie, Perry and Santorum.
Among those not making the cut would be Fiorina, Jindal and Graham, among many other potential candidates.
Even 10 is a lot of people to have on stage, with each trying to come up with the most compelling and effective sound bite. That’s what they’ll be testing and refining in every campaign appearance between now the first debate.
Again, I want to remind you that the first debate is more than two months away. The convention won’t be held for another year. And the actual election is more than 18 months away.
Are you getting tired of the hype and hoopla already? I can’t say I blame you, especially when you consider what the actual results of this process have been for the past couple of decades. Could those secret negotiations in smoke-filled rooms really do any worse for our poor Republic?
Until next time, keep some powder dry.
–Chip Wood
The post The mad scramble for the Republican nomination appeared first on Personal Liberty.
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