Is Donald Trump the gift Libertarians never asked for?

When libertarian-ish GOP presidential hopeful Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) abandoned his 2016 campaign for the nation’s highest office, many people said it was a sign that a short-lived “Libertarian Moment” had fleeted. But some political observers believe Donald Trump’s seemingly unstoppable success could revitalize efforts to mainstream libertarian ideas.

Most of Trump’s success can be attributed to two key things about the candidate: First, he’s a political outsider. And second, he knows exactly what to say to get wall-to-wall press coverage while also tapping into an undercurrent of nativist and protectionist sentiment within certain factions of the Republican Party.

Setting aside those two important points, the challenge of explaining Trump as the best conservative option becomes a little more difficult.

Don’t get me wrong, that the good ‘ol boy GOP establishment is terrified of the guy makes it hard not to like him. But they don’t hate him because he’s a staunch conservative. They hate him because his bluster makes it difficult to politic.

In other words, it’s tough to dance around issues like immigration when there’s a guy on the trail promising voters a “yuge wall” paid for by the Mexicans many Republicans want to keep out of the U.S.

Whether you believe Trump can fulfill his lofty promises is a matter of faith.

But for serious constitutional conservatives and the libertarian-leaning Republicans who were naturally drawn to Paul’s presidential campaign, Trump is a no-go.

As Politico’s Michael Lind put it: “Libertarians want open borders; Trump promises to build a wall with Mexico and deport millions of illegal immigrants. Libertarians want to privatize Social Security; Trump has defended Social Security and Medicare. Libertarians want to cut defense spending; Trump wants a big military…”

And the list could go on.

But there’s still plenty of reason for libertarian-leaners, and especially proper Libertarians, to like Trump.

At least that’s what Gary Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico who is currently vying for the Libertarian presidential nomination is saying.

Recently asked for his opinion on the Trump candidacy, Johnson said: “[He]is no small-government conservative. As that reality sets in, more and more Republicans should, and hopefully will, take a serious look at the Libertarian candidate in November.”

In other words, Johnson believes that once the GOP’s honeymoon phase ends with Trump and Republicans begin seeing that his bluster lacks substance, conservative voters will look for another option.

And his assessment probably isn’t that far off.

Consider this recent report from Roll Call:

If Donald Trump wins the GOP presidential nomination, three out of 10 Republican voters say they would not cast a ballot for him in the general election, a new Economist Group/YouGov Poll finds.

Only 71 percent of Republicans and independents who lean that way would vote for Trump if he were to face Hillary Clinton in a general election; 8 percent would vote for Clinton, 10 percent for another candidate and 10 percent would not vote.

In the less likely scenario Bernard Sanders is the Democratic nominee, 70 percent would vote for Trump, 13 percent would vote for Sanders, 10 percent for another candidate and 8 percent would not vote.

While Johnson could pull significant numbers of GOP voters if Trump becomes the nominee, it’s also worth noting that libertarian ideas are currently at their most popular among the broader electorate.

Last year, Gallup reported that 27 percent of respondents to its annual Governance survey could be classified as libertarian based on their answers to the following two questions:

• Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes closer to your own view?

• Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view?

Twenty-six percent of respondents gave answers that categorized them as conservative, 23 percent liberal and 15 percent populist.

And it’s not far-fetched to believe that Johnson could even appeal to many voters who lean toward the establishment side of the Republican Party.

As he noted: “In New Mexico, I proved to a frankly skeptical Republican ‘establishment’ that governing with libertarian principles not only works, but appeals to a broad swath of the electorate. At CPAC … I was definitely received more enthusiastically and more warmly than in years past. I don’t think it was a coincidence that, this year, CPAC invited a Libertarian candidate to speak on the main stage.”

For more conservative Republicans, Johnson may already be on the radar.

Nebraska Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, who currently holds one of the Senate’s most conservative voting records, is already asking supporters to consider a third party if Trump is nominated.

He said via Facebook: “If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, my expectation is that I will look for some third candidate – a conservative option, a Constitutionalist.

“I do not claim to speak for a movement, but I suspect I am far from alone. After listening to Nebraskans in recent weeks, and talking to a great many people who take oaths seriously, I think many are in the same place. I believe a sizable share of Christians – who regard threats against religious liberty as arguably the greatest crisis of our time – are unwilling to support any candidate who does not make a full-throated defense of the First Amendment a first commitment of their candidacy.”

If that’s the case, all Johnson needs to do is work to reverse the common misconception that libertarianism is guided by libertine impulses.

And he’s already working on that with input from social conservatives who are already Libertarian Party members.

“There are plenty of libertarians who are social conservatives, but they don’t want to have government have any say,” Johnson said in a recent interview.

 

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