Polling shows Donald Trump a huge threat to the GOP establishment

Based on Real Clear Politics’ comprehensive average of data from the nation’s top polling outfits for the 2016 GOP presidential contest, Donald Trump holds a commanding 9.5 point lead against his fellow Republican hopefuls. But that number could be the least of the GOP establishment’s worries.

Michael Needham, chief executive of the Heritage Action for America super PAC, said Sunday that Trump’s popularity has a great deal to do with Republican voters’ overall dissatisfaction with the GOP establishment.

“Most Republican voters hate their party, and that’s what needs to be addressed,” Needham said on “Fox News Sunday.”

The conservative figure said that Trump has something to offer to voters on the right who are sick of the GOP establishment treating the political process like “a game” for Washington insiders.

“Donald Trump is a symptom of a party who has decided they will govern based on special interests,” Needham said, adding that Trump is building voter support by “ticking off all of the right people” in Washington.

“If you can identify the crux of cronyism in Washington, D.C., that’s how you start building trust,” Needham said.

The GOP establishment has yet to accept Trump’s candidacy with open arms, instead writing the business tycoon on as a sideshow and distraction from real issues.

But the GOP elite might want to start taking Trump a little more seriously — or at least pretend to respect his candidacy.

Trump, during a weekend interview on ABC, said he has no interest in a third-party bid at this time — but that he wouldn’t rule out the possibility if he feels abused by the Republican Party.

“If I’m not treated fairly by the Republican Party, I very well might consider that,” Trump said.

Recent polling from Rasmussen illustrates why that could be a problem for the GOP.

From the polling agency:

[O]ver a third (36%) of Likely GOP Voters say they are likely to vote for Trump if he’s a third-party candidate, with 18% who are Very Likely to do so. One-in-three (33%) voters who are not affiliated with either major party also are likely Trump voters, including 16% who say they are Very Likely to vote for him if he runs third-party.

Depending on how much charisma the non-Trump GOP nominee has in that scenario, the number of would-be third-party Trump supporters could go much higher (for instance, given a very unlikely Lindsey Graham nomination) or much lower.

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