With one Supreme Court vacancy already at stake and several more possibly to come in the next four years, much is riding on the 34 races for the U.S. Senate, which holds the power to confirm high-court nominees.
Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump could nominate enough justices to shape the philosophical direction of the court for decades. A Democratic majority in the Senate with a Democratic president could turn the judiciary in a direction never before seen in the U.S.
Before Tuesday’s election, Republicans held 54 seats to the Democrats’ 44, with two independents caucusing with the Democratic Party.
But the GOP has 24 seats up for grabs on this Election Day while the Democrats have just 10.
What could be at issue, depending on Tuesday’s outcome?
How about whether or not the U.S. Supreme Court will curb Second Amendment rights?
Or whether Christians will have the freedom to proclaim the divinity of Jesus Christ, even though it may offend Muslims, or recite Scripture that condemns homosexual behavior?
Or whether Christians will be forced to pay for abortions conducted at any point in a pregnancy?
Already five justices who lined up with President Obama’s agenda have decided that same-sex couples have a right to marriage.
The contested races Tuesday:
- Arizona incumbent Sen. John McCain, a Republican, has the edge in polls over Democrat Anne Kirkpatrick. McCain originally backed Trump then withdrew his endorsement. The ultimate Washington insider with decades of tenure, McCain lost the presidential race in 2008.
- Colorado El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, a tea party favorite, staged a run at entrenched establishment Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet, who acknowledged the challenge in his ads by boasting of working across the aisle. Bennet was up by multiple percentage points in most polls, taking full advantage of the status as an incumbent.
- Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio staged a bid for the GOP nomination for president then focused on his Senate seat after dropping out of the presidential race. He’s been leading Democrat Patrick Murphy since.
- Indiana Republican Rep. Todd Young leads former Sen. Evan Bayh, a Democrat, by a narrow margin. Bayh had led for months, but amid Trump’s surge in the polls, Young caught and passed Bayh. It appears Bayh, with his ties to Washington lobbyists, was a poor choice by Democrats in “an anti-establishment” year.
- In Louisiana, the leader heading into the election appeared to be Republican state treasurer John Kennedy, with 22.7 percent of support. But the state has no primaries, instead holding an open primary at the general election. A winner needs more than 50 percent of the vote to capture the seat. Failing that, the top two contenders run off against each other in December. So it is possible for two Republicans, two Democrats or one of each to be in the race.Other top names include former state senator Foster Campbell, a Democrat, with 16.7 percent support. Then there are Republican Rep. Charles Boustany, with 13.3 percent, Democrat Caroline Fayard with 11.3 percent, Republican Rep. John Fleming with 9.3 percent and Republican Rob Maness with 3.3 percent.
- A slight edge in Missouri goes to Republican Sen. Roy Blunt, who was challenged by Jason Kander, the secretary of state. Kander claims the benefit of being an outsider, a popular theme in 2016, but still trails.
- In Nevada, the race between Republican Rep. Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was a virtual dead heat.
- In New Hampshire, Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte was ahead of Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan by only a few points in a late poll. But with New Hampshire’s large population of independents, anything can happen.
- In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr was holding a narrow 2 percent lead over former state Rep. Deborah Ross, a Democrat. The strongest potential Democrat candidate, Attorney General Roy Cooper, decided against a bid.
- In Pennsylvania, another tea party favorite, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, was facing a tough challenge from Katie McGinty, a former Clinton adviser. The race was tied as recently as last month, with McGinty then edging out in front in a state that is heavily Democrat.
- In Wisconsin, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faced a tough race against a name from the past: former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. While the Democrat has been in the lead in polling, the race narrowed considerably heading to the election.
Republican Senate seats on the ballot that were not expected to change include Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; Richard Shelby, R-Ala.; John Boozman, R-Ark.; Johnny Isakson, R-Ga.; Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa; Mike Crapo, R-Idaho; Jerry Moran, R-Kan.; Rand Paul, R-Ky.; John Hoeven, R-N.D.; Rob Portman, R-Ohio; James Lankford, R-Okla.; Tim Scott, R-S.C.; John Thune, R-S.D.; and Mike Lee, R-Utah.
Democrats expected to return included Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.; Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii; Mark Kirk, D-Ill.; Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.; Ron Wyden, D-Ore.; Patrick Leahy, D-Vt.; and Patty Murray, D-Wash.
Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., is retiring and likely will be succeeded by either Chris Van Hollen or Kathy Szeliga. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., will be succeeded by either Kamala Harris or Rep. Loretta Sanchez.
President Obama has nominated Merrick Garland, a longtime Washington insider, to replace Antonin Scalia, but the Senate declined to take up consideration of the nominee immediately, as the Constitution allows.
Obama has argued that the Constitution essentially requires the Senate to act on his timetable, calling it a dereliction of the Senate’s duties to not make a decision immediately.
Obama previously appointed two far-left justices, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, Kagan was one of two justices, the other being Ruth Ginsburg, who publicly advocated for same-sex “marriage” while the Supreme Court case was under way by performing such ceremonies. Both Kagan and Ginsburg then refused requests to abide by typical judicial ethics rules and recuse themselves from the case.
Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Texas, expressed alarm at Garland’s position on the right to bear arms.
“While the president has every right to make a nomination to fill the seat on the Supreme Court, the Senate also has every right to confirm or not confirm that nominee,” he said. “I hope the Senate takes a strong stand against a nominee that has shown he is no friend to the Constitution and no friend to the right to keep and bear arms.”
He said Garland’s vote on a gun case indicated he would not have supported the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Washington, D.C.’s handgun ban as unconstitutional.
“Additionally, in NRA v. Reno, Garland ruled in favor of government retention, for six months, of background check information that is collected when people legally purchase guns, a position the NRA vehemently rejected. The NRA argued that the information was required to be immediately destroyed under the Brady Act,” Farenthold said.
In response to Obama, Sen. Ted Cruz, R, Texas, urged Republicans to block a Democratic president from filling the vacant Supreme Court seat indefinitely.
Trump has promised he would nominate candidates for the Supreme Court from a list of names he’s released. The list features judges regarded as “originalists,” who believe the Constitution should be interpreted according to the original intent of the founders.
He has warned: “We have a very clear choice in this election. The freedoms we cherish and the constitutional values and principles our country was founded on are in jeopardy.”
He promised to name appointees “in the mold of Scalia.”
Among Trump’s ideal candidates are Timothy Tymkovich and Neil Gorsuch, both of the 10th U.S. Court of Appeals in Denver. Both were appointed to the appeals court by President George W. Bush.
Also on Trump’s list was Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, the only nonjurist. Other names were Keith Blackwell, Charles Canady, Edward Mansfield, Federico Moreno, Margaret Ryan and Amul Thapar.
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