Reince Priebus
The last nine GOP presidential conventions all opened with a presumptive nominee – and the subsequent events largely could be described as formalities.
But that’s not at all guaranteed this year, with some dozen GOP leaders still fighting for votes, and a lawyer who advised campaigns for both Mitt Romney and George W. Bush says it would be unwise not to prepare for a convention floor fight for the role as GOP candidate.
That field still remained at 12 after former New York Gov. George Pataki ended his 2016 bid this week.
Candidates to drop out earlier included Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham, Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal.
But still in the running are John Kasich, Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson and Donald Trump.
Meaning substantial support for a name like a Mitt Romney, or a John McCain, or a George W. Bush, may be hard to assemble before the convention itself.
In a column for the Wall Street Journal, Benjamin L. Ginsberg, who advised campaigns for both Mitt Romney and George W. Bush, said, “The chances of delegates arriving at the convention in Cleveland next July with no clear nominee remain small. But the odds are no longer infinitesimal thanks to the multicandidate field, required early proportional voting and the fact that only 16.2 percent of the delegates will have been chosen in decisive, winner-take-all contests.”
He described there being three likely scenarios, including the first that there will be a clear winner. The other two, he said, would put the party in new territory.
That first option would happen if a first-ballot candidate gets a majority of the 2,472 delegates.
Indications of whether that is likely will be known after the March 1 primaries in 12 states, or after the March 15 Florida and Ohio contests, or the April 19 and 26 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic primaries, he said.
Or the fight is on.
In one other scenario, he said, several candidates could be a few hundred delegates short of the 1,237 needed.
He said, “This historical anomaly would produce a real-life experiment in how button-downed, conservative Republicans deal with pure chaos.
“The broadcast networks might actually want to cover all four nights,” he suggested.
Then there also could be a presumptive nominee who is short of delegates – and might even be opposed by party leaders.
Delegates, most of them anyway, are bound only to vote as instructed by their state results on the first ballot, he pointed out.
After that, a free-for-all.
Ginsberg said the jockeying actually will be starting a week before the convention, when the party’s rules committee and credentials committee must consider challenges, questions and procedures.
He pointed out that RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has “ridiculed the chances of a deadlocked convention” while preparing for “everything.”
“Indeed, no planning would border on malpractice,” Ginsberg said.
The GOP race is roiling this year because of an internal war between those Washington insiders who perceive a steady-as-it-goes path is preferable. Others, Washington outsiders, such as frontrunner Donald Trump, are proposing plans changes that would seriously disrupt the status quo.
from PropagandaGuard https://propagandaguard.wordpress.com/2016/01/01/gop-warned-to-prepare-for-convention-chaos/
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