Even before the presidential primaries reached fever pitch earlier this year, pundits declared Democrat Hillary Clinton her party’s inevitable nominee and predicted she’d go on to win the general election. But with the election just over a month away, Republican Donald Trump’s odds keep getting better and better.
One of the biggest problems emerging for Clinton is difficulty firing up Democratic voters put off by her mountain of scandals and the recent DNC email hack which revealed her collusion with party officials to hurt Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ showing in the primary.
According to new polling data out from Gallup, the lack of voter enthusiasm is expected to bring Democratic voter turnout to a 16-year low in November.
Only 65 percent of American Democrats say they will definitely vote in the presidential election. That’s compared to 75 percent of Republicans. Among young voters, often seen as a major help in electing Democrats, the showing is expected to be even worse. Only 47 percent of 18-34-year-olds say they will definitely show up to help Clinton get elected.
“The 65 percent of Democrats saying they will definitely vote is well below their average for the prior four presidential elections (77 percent), whereas the 76 percent of Republicans saying they will definitely vote is only a bit lower than their prior average (81 percent),” Gallup noted.
Clinton remains the favorite for victory in November— but the Democrat doesn’t have a strong edge over Trump.
A handful of recent polls showed Clinton leading Trump nationally by a feeble two point margin. Others, like a recent poll out from LA Times and USC Tracking show Trump leading (that particular poll assigns him a three to four point lead).
The media’s insistence that Clinton won Monday’s debate should help to raise Clinton’s poll numbers for now—but the impact isn’t expected to be particularly meaningful or lasting.
That’s why some folks on Clinton’s side, like President Barack Obama campaign architect David Plouffe, are doing what they can to draw attention away from Clinton’s poll numbers.
“Some polls closely capture where the race stands. But they’re very incomplete,” he recently sad on the Political Wire podcast, adding that he’s more optimistic about the Clinton campaign’s internal election predictions.
Still, plenty of people are unconvinced that Americans should pay less attention to national polling numbers. Among them is renowned statistician Nate Silver, who said last week that Clinton is clearly doing worse than her predecessor was against Mitt Romney at this point in the 2012 election.
“Clinton’s ~2% lead over Trump is a lot less safe than Obama’s was at similar junctures over Romney,” Silver said via Twitter.
“First, Obama was overperforming in swing states. So a 2% national lead was equivalent to 3% Electoral College lead. NOT true for Clinton,” he said.
Silver added: “And second, much larger undecided and 3rd party vote this year. Leading 48-46 is considerably safer than leading 42-40.”
Silver has gotten plenty of pushback from Democrats who refuse to believe that Trump could beat Clinton in November, to which he recently rebutted: “Never seen otherwise-smart people in so much denial about something as they are about Trump’s chances. Same mistake as primaries, Brexit. “
British politician Nigel Farage, the architect of Brexit, agrees that Trump’s establishment-bucking candidacy has a lot in common with the successful British campaign to leave the EU. In Farage’s view, Trump is likely to benefit from increased voter engagement, opposite what Clinton is likely to be dealing with in November.
He recently wrote in The Washington Post: “[W]hen the Trump team draw parallels between the situations in Britain and the United States — the detachment many voters feel — and compare their effort to our recent referendum success, they are absolutely right.
“Brexit won because 2.5 million people who normally don’t vote or who have never voted in their lives turned out to vote on this occasion, meaning that a huge 17.4 million people in total ended up voting for Britain to leave the European Union.”
There’s also the matter of a likely October surprise in the form of more leaks about her political corruption that could seriously damage the Clinton campaign, improving Trump’s electoral odds.
Related: Princeton professor tells Americans to prepare for a major October Surprise
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