Donald Trump
While opinion polls have varied widely over the past several months, they are converging in this last week before Election Day, agreeing that the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is too close to call and indicating a massive slide in enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential nominee.
The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Donald Trump with a 1-point lead, with “strong enthusiasm” among likely Hillary Clinton voters collapsing even before FBI Director James Comey announced Friday the reopening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information. On Oct. 22, Clinton led 52 to 49 percent in “strong enthusiasm” among their respective supporters. On Sunday, Trump had a 53 to 45 percent advantage.
The ABC poll has drawn attention with its indication of a dramatic shift even before the FBI revelation, with a 13-point swing in less than two weeks that has Trump leading by 1 point in Tuesday’s result.
It’s Trump’s first lead since May in the poll, which shows him consolidating support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: 86 percent now favor him, up from 80 percent.
Significantly, Trump also has gained among pure independents — those who don’t lean toward either party — rising from an even split to a 54-25 advantage.
The latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll — which predicted the outcome of the past three presidential elections — shows Clinton on a three-day slide since Comey’s announcement, with a 3-point lead shrinking to 1 point.
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll, which tracks about 3,000 eligible voters until election day, shows Trump with a lead of nearly 4 points, 46.9 to 43.3 percent.
The Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey on Tuesday finds Clinton and Trump each with 44 percent support among likely U.S. voters.
The RealClearPolitics Poll Average also shows the race tightening, with Clinton now leading by 2.2 points.
Narrowing the gap
Nate Siver, at his FiveThirtyEight blog, says that with or without the latest FBI email revelation, Trump continues to narrow the gap with Clinton.
In the battleground states, a set of eight automated polls conducted Sunday by Remington Research Group on behalf of the Republican consulting firm Axiom Strategies showed Trump gaining an average of 1 point compared to a week earlier.
Though the election takes place state by state, there are fewer state polls, and they generally are not as up-to-date as the national polls, which give a better reflection of trends.
Siver said Monday afternoon it’s difficult to tell how much the shift toward Trump reflects the Comey announcement because the race already had been tightening.
He said the margin is closing because Trump is gaining ground from undecided voters and third-party candidates, rather than Clinton losing support.
“The fact is, though, that the data we’ve gotten during the past few days is consistent with a reasonably competitive race — although one in which Clinton has the advantage – especially given the significant disagreement in the polls and the relatively high uncertainty surrounding the polling this year,” Silver said.
“But we also haven’t seen many recent high-quality state polls from states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which are a key part of Clinton’s electoral firewall.”
He said the next set of results from those states “will go a long way toward determining just how nervous Democrats wind
up being.”
The Morning Consult national poll for Politico, conducted Saturday and Sunday, also showed the race tightening, with Clinton holding on to a 3-point lead, losing 6 points compared to an Oct. 19-20 poll after the third debate.
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