When the first debate of Republican presidential contenders begins tonight, Donald Trump will be front and center. This is only appropriate, since he was easily at the top of the five national polls that Fox TV used to determine who would be on the stage of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum.
Flanking Trump will be the men who placed second and third in the polls: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush on his left and current Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker on right.
Surprising many people by landing the fourth slot will be the only black on the stage, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Then comes former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and the three senators in the top 10: Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida and Rand Paul of Texas.
The last two to make the cut are New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose campaign spent a small fortune on TV ads in the days leading up to the debate, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Let’s pause for a moment to pay our respects to the seven declared candidates who didn’t generate the numbers to get on stage tonight. That includes two contenders I would like to have seen there: former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, the only woman in the race on the Republican side.
We’ll get a chance to hear them, and five other hopefuls, in a pre-debate debate that Fox will host at 5 p.m. ET. The other five are current Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Gov. George Pataki of New York and Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
I doubt if anything that is said in the earlier debate will be enough to vault one of these also-rans into the top tier. Republican pollster Frank Luntz has been totally dismissive of their chances. He was quoted as saying, “If you’re not on that stage [for the main debate], you’re irrelevant; you don’t matter.”
That’s pretty harsh, but probably true. Interestingly enough, just getting a ton of TV exposure wasn’t enough to earn a spot on the main stage. The left-leaning group Media Matters for America released a study showing that Perry and Fiorina were among the six candidates who’ve made the most appearances on Fox News or Fox Business Network in the past three months. I’ve liked what both have been saying, and I’m sorry we won’t see them on the main stage tonight.
OK, what about the $64 million question: Will any of the other nine guys on stage with Trump be able to knock him from the top spot in the polls? They’d better not count on hoping Trump will self-destruct tonight. The public has shown it likes his freewheeling, take-no-prisoners style. Even his remarks questioning John McCain’s heroism caused barely a ripple in his popularity.
But they also better avoid any direct attack. Voters don’t like it most of the time. Trump has been getting a pass on this one. In fact, making outrageous comments is clearly a large part of his appeal. But other candidates had best be very careful about violating what Ronald Reagan called the 11th commandment: Don’t speak ill of a fellow Republican.
But the bigger reason not to attack The Donald tonight is that he is an incredibly effective counterpuncher. You can bet that he’ll be ready with a devastating comeback. And he won’t care how politically incorrect it might be.
So how will Paul or Kasich or any of the other wannabes on stage with him prevent Trump from sucking all of oxygen out of the room? You can bet their staffs have been working overtime to come up the most powerful and compelling sound bites they can.
Those same staffs will also be ready to flood the Twitterverse with positive quotes and comments about their candidate — and maybe even a slam or two about the opposition.
When all is said and done, I don’t expect the current standings to change very much. I suspect The Donald still be leading the pack, with Bush and Walker fighting for second place and the other guys trying desperately to get their numbers higher.
Tonight certainly won’t be a lovefest. But I doubt if we’ll see any angry replies or dazzling fireworks, either. No matter how provocative a question Megyn Kelly, Bret Baier or Chris Wallace asks, I expect nine candidates to respond with an answer that’s been carefully researched and rehearsed and for Trump to wing it with the same passion and provocation that’s brought him this far. Why change something that’s been working so well?
It’s going to be interesting, but probably not decisive.
Until next time, keep some powder dry.
–Chip Wood
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