“The economy, stupid” is a phrase Democratic strategist James Carville coined during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent President George H.W. Bush. As Americans are confronted with the very real — and very depressing — possibility of another Bush/Clinton contest, Carville’s phrase is poised to make a comeback alongside the political dynasties.
GOP pollster Ed Goeas recently told a gathering of the moderate Republican Ripon Society that 72 percent of Americans count a U.S. economic downturn as their primary political concern.
“Concern over the economy is the highest I’ve ever seen,” Goeas said.
The pollster cited a trend of voters losing faith in the American dream over the past several years as one indicator of how economic anxiety has permeated the nation’s psyche.
“I remember in the Reagan campaign, we changed and modified some of our messaging when for the first time it fell below 50 percent saying ‘yes, the next generation will do better [financially]’” Goeas said. “Today, it’s only 26 percent … 69 percent say ‘no, the next generation will not do better.’”
Goeas went on to note that economic concerns are changing the way GOP voters pick candidates, increasingly setting aside social issue considerations in favor of leaders who demonstrate effectiveness in dealing with fiscal issues.
“In the past, the Democrats always focused on effectiveness and Republicans always focused on someone that matches your views,” he explained. “Today, it’s 57 percent someone who’s effective and only 35 percent someone who matches views of my own. And Republicans are no different than the rest of the electorate. ”
According to the elections expert, Republican candidates should take this as a sign that focusing on the economy will give the party a much better shot at winning the White house than social issue pandering.
“The middle class is our target. The middle class is, by definition, 70 percent of the electorate,” he said. “When we talk about the African-American vote and when we talk about the Hispanic vote, the key to winning these votes is not approaching them as Hispanics or African-Americans, but rather approaching them as middle-class voters — as hardworking taxpayers.”
But if GOP candidates are to focus on creating an appealing message to the middle class, recent polling data from Rasmussen suggests that they face an uphill battle.
According to the numbers, 70 percent of U.S. voters say that they aren’t sure politicians even define the middle class in the same way as average Americans.
From the polling agency:
Forty-one percent (41%) of Americans think being middle class is determined by how much money you make. Slightly more (43%) say being middle class means you are self-supporting, self-reliant and free of dependence on the government. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided.
Nearly half (48%) believes someone is middle class if they have a yearly household income of $50,000 to $100,000. Thirty-five percent (35%) think someone is middle class if they earn less than that, including seven percent (7%) who include those who make less than $25,000 a year. Twelve percent (12%) describe those who get more than $100,000 per year as middle class, with one percent (1%) who include those who make more than $200,000 annually.
However, when politicians talk about the middle class, just 38% believe they are referring to those who earn $50,000 to $100,000 annually. Thirty-four percent (34%) think politicians consider those earning less than that middle class, while 19% feel they are referring to those who make more than $100,000 annually.
So how does Joe presidential hopeful excite these voters?
Protecting American manufacturers and businesses from foreign competition by taking on President Obama’s trade initiatives would be a good start. Rasmussen reports that 54 percent of Americans believe that government isn’t doing enough to protect us jobs from outside competition. And while the polling agency records 50 percent of U.S. voters saying that trade is good for consumers, 40 percent say it destroys American jobs.
According to Harvard’s 2015 “State of the Nation’s Housing” report, it would also be a good idea for presidential hopefuls to speak directly to the millions of middle-class Americans who are currently “cost-burdened.” The phrase applies to families who, because of rising inflation and housing costs amid stagnated wages, spend more than 30 percent of their household income on shelter.
The report, which focuses primarily on renters in the U.S., found that middle-class Americans earning $45,000 to $75,000 a year are rapidly joining the nation’s poor in inability to cover housing costs.
The post Pollster: Republicans need to steer clear of social pandering and nail fiscal messaging appeared first on Personal Liberty.
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